4-DIME NFL POD
[color=#FF0000:1vglkc5j][b:1vglkc5j]Freddy Wills's Pick[/b:1vglkc5j][/color:1vglkc5j]
For as bad as I have been in NFL I have been great in NCAAF, but that all does not matter with the losers in NFL. I am dedicated to turning this around the 2nd half of the year and will do so starting tonight by making some major tweaks. Normally I'd be on the Broncos here, and it's based off line movement as the public is on the Steelers but the line moves the other way. However, looking at this match up more there is just no way I can take the Broncos who finally gave up some 2nd half points to the Ravens last week.
Now the Ravens are similar to the Steelers in more ways than one. Like the Ravens last week the Steelers are coming off the bye. LIke the Ravens the Steelers have a shut down defense only the Steelers possess the #1 rush defense and overall are better. Like the Ravens the Steelers have always been a run first team, but are doing it through the air this year. While the Ravens have a slightly better running game the Steelers are starting to look better over the last three weeks with 4.3 yards per carry. Now the ability to stop the run against the Broncos is the key and sets up a more favorable match up for a team if they can do so.
Now I'm going to give you three reasons why the Steelers are better than the Broncos along with the fact that home field won't be as much of an advantage tonight because the Steelers are in fact coming off a bye giving them more time to prepare. Making the home field vs. team off bye a wash.
Three reasons:
Both teams played at home vs. the Browns. Steelers outgained CLE by 346 yards, while Denver outgained them by 249. +97 yard advantage to Steelers.
Both teams played at the Bengals. Steelers outgained them by 100 yards while Denver was outgained by 5 yards. +105 yard advantage to Steelers.
Denver @ Chargers out gained the Chargers by 17 yards, but the Steelers at home outgained them by 246 yards. That's a +229 yard advantage to Steelers. Certainly proves that the Steelers are the better team to me defensively because they were able to stop San Diego while Denver just could not and struggled vs. the pass.
Denver is a great defense and should be able to get to Big Ben a bunch tonight, but it's the plays that Big Ben make with his feet to get outside the pocket and get the ball to his receivers that win this game. If you throw out the running game because both defenses have top 5 run stopping units the passing game is where the game gets decided for me. Now Big Ben although he takes a lot of sacks he does not turn the ball over via fumble something the Broncos have feasted on this year. This is good news for the Steelers as Big Ben will likely break a few sacks and get the ball away to one of the receivers. Pitt on the other hand plays better pass defense than indicated as they lost Troy Polamoulou's for quite some time and now he'll be back for his 2nd game and off a bye to really come into play. The dink and dunk passing won't work against the Steelers and Orton is going to have to take some shots.
Overall I'll take Big Ben over Kyle Orton who maybe for the first time looks human and makes some big time mistakes. Baltimore proved that it was possible to score on the Broncos in the 2nd half and should give the Steelers confidence to put this team away late.
